The performance of listed companies in lithium mines has reversed, and many new energy auto parts stocks have risen sharply
In the first week of November, the performance of new energy vehicle-related topics in the capital market was mediocre.
According to Wind data, the theme of new energy vehicles rose slightly last week, and the index rose 1.34 percent ; the theme of power lithium-ion batteries and lithium ore were weak, and the index fell 3.46 percent and 7.21 percent respectively last week.
Wind data shows that recently, 13 listed companies with the theme of lithium mining have disclosed their third-quarter performance reports. Among them, 12 companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters, accounting for about 92 percent .
However, the fundamentals and stock price performance are not consistent, and the performance of lithium mining stocks has declined to varying degrees recently. Huachuang Securities believes that in the short and medium term, due to supply shortages and low inventories, lithium prices are expected to continue to rise, which in turn will drive the continuous release of sector profits. In the long run, it is more certain that electric vehicles and energy storage will drive high demand. In contrast, upstream lithium resources have a long development cycle and large capital investment. It is difficult for the supply side to increase significantly, and the lithium resource gap will continue to expand.
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Tabulation: Every reporter Li Shuo (Data source: Wind)
The top gainers this week are companies related to new energy auto parts. Previously, due to factors such as insufficient chip supply, rising raw material prices, and a rebound in the epidemic, the performance of the automotive sector in the third quarter of this year was under pressure. The shortage of chips in the fourth quarter will be greatly improved from the previous quarter, and the supply side will improve. The previously suppressed demand is expected to increase in volume in the fourth quarter. The fundamentals of the industry will be greatly improved, and the new energy vehicle market will maintain a rapid growth.
Tabulation: Every reporter Li Shuo (Data source: Wind)
Last week, the performance of lithium-ion battery-related stocks was weak, and the stock prices of many stocks fell sharply. According to wind data, the main net outflow of lithium-ion batteries last week was 8.112 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that Shi Dashenghua (603026, SH), who rose from less than 40 yuan at the beginning of the year to a high of nearly 350 yuan in September, became the "negative squad leader" last week. Although Shi Dashenghua's net profit attributable to the parent in the first three quarters was 740 million yuan, a sharp increase of 1185.75 percent compared with the same period of the previous year, the company's net profit attributable to the parent in the third quarter was only 150 million yuan, a decrease of 58.22 percent compared with the second quarter. Under the background of the improvement of prosperity, its profitability has been questioned, and the stock price may have dropped significantly because of this.
Tabulation: Every reporter Li Shuo (Data source: Wind)
Last week, individual stocks related to the new energy vehicle industry chain were less active. Among them, BYD (002594, SZ) received the most attention. Huachuang Securities analysis believes that the pace of global electrification is accelerating, and BYD's growth as a leading domestic electric vehicle company will continue to accelerate. In addition to the accelerated growth of the automobile and battery business sectors, the company is also strengthening its layout in the upstream and downstream of the new energy industry chain and the upstream and downstream fields of autonomous driving to enhance the competitiveness of the system centered on the new energy business. Optimistic about the company's medium- and long-term electrification leading advantages and the layout advantages of the entire industry chain.
Tabulation: Every reporter Li Shuo (Data source: Wind)
In terms of market value, stocks related to the new energy vehicle industry chain did not change much last week. It is worth mentioning that on November 1, the market value of CATL (300750, SZ) reached a maximum of 1.58 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, SZ) for a time, ranking second in A-share market value, second only to Guizhou. Moutai (600519, SZ). In the following days, the stock price of Ningde Times fluctuated downward, and the final market value was fixed at 1.48 trillion yuan. Despite this, the market value of Ningde era is still "one-stop" in the new energy vehicle industry chain.
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1. Shanghai issued a document to support the development of the fuel-powered lithium battery vehicle industry
On November 3, the official website of the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission announced "Several Policies for Supporting the Development of the Fuel-Powered Lithium Battery Vehicle Industry in the City". The document proposes that by the end of 2025, Shanghai municipal finance will invest in a ratio of 1:1 with the central financial incentive funds for the national fuel-powered lithium battery vehicle demonstration, focusing on supporting vehicle demonstration applications, industrialization of key core technologies, talent introduction, and team building.
2. October sales of new car manufacturers announced
Recently, a number of new car-making companies announced their sales in October. Among them, Xiaopeng Motors delivered about 10,100 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 233 percent , ranking first among new power car-making companies; Ideal Motors ranked second in delivery volume with 7,649 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 107.2 percent ; Nezha car delivery volume It was 8,107 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 294 percent , ranking among the top three sales of new power car-making companies in the month; WM Motor delivered 5,025 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 67.3 percent . Affected by the adjustment of production lines, NIO delivered only 3,667 vehicles in October, a year-on-year decrease of 27.5 percent .
3. The battle for lithium mines is in full swing
Recently, American Lithium, a Canadian lithium company, announced that it has submitted an unconditional offer to Millennium Lithium to acquire all outstanding shares of Millennium Lithium for a total price of US400 million (cash plus equity, approximately RMB 2.558 billion). Previously, Ningde Times had offered 377 million Canadian dollars (about 1.92 billion yuan) to acquire Millennium Lithium. It is understood that Millennium Lithium is focusing on the exploration and development of brine extraction projects in Argentina. According to a report in June, the company's measured and indicated lithium carbonate equivalent is about 4.12 million tons.
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A few days ago, Wanlian Securities released a research report that according to the recently announced "carbon peak" action method, by 2030, the proportion of new energy and clean energy-powered vehicles will reach about 40 percent . It is expected that in 2030, new energy vehicles are expected to It has reached 12 million units, which is a substantial increase from 1.367 million units in 2020. In the medium and long term, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase with a high degree of certainty.
CITIC Securities predicts that the global new energy vehicle industry will continue its high prosperity in 2022, and the domestic and foreign industrial ecology will accelerate integration. Tesla may continue to lead the global wave of electric intelligence. Domestic practical and high-quality models will continue to be launched, driving the electrification rate of automobiles to increase. The policy environment in the United States will improve, and the outbreak in Europe will rise. In the medium and long term, the trend of vehicle electrification and intelligence is irreversible. It is estimated that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country and Europe is expected to exceed 20 percent in 2025.
In terms of the industrial chain, Ping An Securities believes that the continuous decline in subsidies and the continuous introduction of new production have caused all links in the new energy vehicle industry chain to face price reduction pressures, especially the midstream links, which face price reductions from downstream OEMs to cut costs. , and the dilemma of upstream resource companies raising prices. The new production due to the continuous influx of investment in recent years will accelerate the reshuffle in the coming period.
Tabulation: Every reporter Li Shuo (Data source: Comprehensive Wind, Oriental Fortune as of 11.05)
Last week, we focused on individual stocks in the field of lithium battery separators. According to an analysis by CITIC Securities, new energy vehicles have driven the rapid rise of power lithium-ion batteries. At the same time, energy storage has also entered a period of rapid introduction, and downstream demand continues to be strong. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2025, the global demand for lithium-ion battery separators will increase from 6 billion square meters to 20.1 billion square meters, with an annual compound growth rate of over 40 percent . In terms of supply, the supply cycle of diaphragm equipment is about 2 years, which is the core constraint for the expansion of diaphragm companies. According to estimates, the increase in global diaphragm demand from 2021 to 2023 is 3.4-3.5 billion square meters, while the global diaphragm supply increase is 2.55-3.1 billion square meters. It is expected that diaphragms will remain in short supply in the next two years.
It is worth noting that Enjie (002812.SZ), a leading lithium battery diaphragm company, recently announced its third-quarter financial report, showing that the company achieved revenue of 5.368 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 107.97 percent ; the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.75 billion yuan, A year-on-year increase of 172.06 percent . Zheshang Securities believes that Enjie currently has four core advantages of scale, equipment, technology, and customers. The advantages build a closed loop with each other, and joint cost reduction aggravates the Matthew effect. It is expected that its global market share will continue to rise from 27 percent in 2020 to 35 percent in 2023, and its global market share is expected to reach 50 percent in 2025.
